Israel and Hamas Latest Conflict: A Sad Dilemma
Dear Readers,
To write anything about the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is fraught with the danger of boring a reader with another news bulletin. They fly fast and thick in every form, most on the WA and other social media. They are all opinionated and take sides. So another one for you to read would mean I am treading on dangerous grounds. That is why I tried to avoid the conflict and look at the broader scenario of how the conflict is built up. This piece is the first in the series, and there would be at least another if the conflict resolution is quick. But going by the turn of events, it’s unlikely. This time, the end state may be quite different than envisaged or what has been achieved earlier. What would it be? It is very hard to predict. I suspect even the Israelis are unaware of how this would end. For the region's sake, I hope that good sense prevails over the political leaders to rein in their respective militant or murderous elements. No one side alone can find a solution to this complex problem. I hope you find something new in this read.
Israel and Hamas Latest Conflict: A Sad Dilemma
With the amount of information circulated by the print, electronic media, and on the internet, there is very little that a reader doesn't know about the history, geography and the reasons for the current war. If anything, there is an information overload. It is difficult to separate the Chaff from the grain. Seventh day after Hamas made a daring intrusion onto Israeli territory, most observers are baffled: How could it happen? Many theories are doing the round. For example, the Egyptians had warned the Israelis about a big impending attack by Hamas at least three days before the attacks happened, or a cyber-attack paralysed the Israeli electronic systems, thus making them blind to the actual incursions. There may be little truth in them. A billion-dollar fence does not collapse without reason or because of the day's cyber-attack. Yet there is a sinister feeling about how the entire first day of the crisis fanned out. Israelis have responded by bombing Gaza to earth. The air and artillery strikes continue even as this article is being written or read. The anticipated Israeli ground offensive is to be launched anytime. Having slipped up in allowing this deadly Hamas attack, the Israeli government now vows to kill every Hamas member. 'This time it would be different', they have promised to their Public. Such a promise is a tall order. This is not the first time Israel has vowed to obliterate Hamas, and it will not be the last time if things don't change.
There is something sinister about this crisis. The signs are different than the usual Israel-Palestine, Israel-Hamas conflict. Israel has fought with Hamas since it seized power in the Gaza Strip. In 2007, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2021 and now 2023. This time, the level is different, both the Hamas attack and the Israeli response from the air. The genocide of the Israeli civilians in their territory on such a large scale is a new low for the Israelis. Why is this conflict giving chills to all governments in the world? As if the evil has risen from the ground and a biblical prophecy of holocaust is coming true. Will the conflict widen and engulf more nations? This article delves into what makes this conflict different. And is there more than what meets the eye?
The Abraham Accord
In September 2020, Israel, Bahrain and the UAE signed a peace treaty. It formally established diplomatic relations between the UAE, Bahrain, and the Israelis. It meant two important Arab countries had recognised the state of Israel and established diplomatic ties. Signed under the umbrella of the Trump administration, it was hailed as a successful Coup, which the Trump Administration had pulled out in its dying days. It was named the 'Abraham Accord'. Central to this treaty was the role of Saudi Arabia. Both Bahrain and UAE are strong allies of the Saudis. It was believed that Saudi Arabia had given its tacit approval to these countries to go ahead with the accord, thus opening up the Middle East to a new period where business with Israel was not taboo.
Why was this accord so significant? The answer to this question goes back to the formation of the Jewish land in 1949 by the United Nations out of Palestine. The Arab land of Palestine was divided, and Israel was carved out of it. Ever since then, the Arab countries have vowed not to recognise Israel and do any business with them. The central understanding was any reconciliation with Israel would only be after the state of Palestine got a de Jure recognition as an independent country. This recognition was of the 'Two State Theory' of Palestine. Since Israel did not recognise Palestine as an independent country, the Vice versa was also true for the Islamic world. When the Abraham Accord was signed, It broke the 70-year-old understanding between Islamic nations. The Abraham Accord had no mention of Palestine.
The Saudis behind this development drew the ire of the Islamic world, much to the delight of the Iranians. Saudi Arabia under Mohammad-Bin -Salman (MBS in Short) is on the cusp of a change. Saudi Arabia is the claimers to the title of "‘Protecters of the Islamic Ummah’ (Islamic holy community). Their claims are recognised because they are the custodians of the two holiest shrines of the Islamic world, Mecca & Medina. Both cities are in Saudi Arabia. Yet there is a divide in Islam: the Sunnis, a sect to which Saudi Arabia belongs, and Shiites (pronounced as Shias). The Shias find their leadership in Iran. The divide between the two Islamic sects is due to the conflict about who is the real successor of Prophet Mohammad. The divide between the two sects is bitter; thus, the divide between the two nations leading the sects is also very bitter. Both countries claim to be the leaders of the Muslim world.
When the Abraham Accord was signed, there was a tacit understanding that it would pave the way to a similar accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel. President Trump and his Republican party lost elections in the US, and the Saudi-Israel deal went into cold storage. President Biden wanted to resurrect the nuclear deal with Iran, which his party under Barrack Obama had made. Also, the Khashoggi murder, a Washington Post journalist allegedly murdered by the Saudi secret service in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, had left President Biden a bitter critic of MBS. He had vowed to make Saudi Arabia a pariah state. He was more inclined to appease the Iranians.
Shifting US Concerns
The Biden administration suffered from foreign policy failures in Afghanistan, China, and Russia. The Ukraine conflict became the epicentre of US attention. With the Middle East relatively quiet and peaceful, the US was keen to get out and concentrate on its problems in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. As a foreign policy, the Biden administration was eager to see Israel reduce its conflict with the Arab world so that the US could disengage from the Middle East and concentrate on the newer areas of concern borne out of the belligerence of Russia in Ukraine and China in the south China sea. The Abraham Accord came to the rescue, and for the US, it was time to put part II into motion. The mutual hatred for Iran made the common ground for Israel's Prime Minister, Mr Netanyahu, and MBS to tread on. Serious discussions brokered by the US brought the two sides within striking distance of inking a deal. But while the deal was a win-win for all parties, it was not easy for the Saudis to give their nod till Israel made some serious concessions on Palestine. MBS and the Sauds, though dictators are very sensitive to public opinion at home. Any Arab deal without the Palestinian bargain would be disastrous. It is believed that the staunch conservative right-wing Prime Minister Mr Netanyahu was considering something which would have been a bargain enough for the Peace deal between the Saudis and Israel. The speculated part of this deal was the military support by the US to the Saudis and the permission and active help to build a civil nuclear facility inside Saudi Arabia. Despite much opposition inside the US, the Biden administration was willing to let this deal go through with ironclad guarantees from the Saudis, which were necessary to appease the Israelis. It was believed that the deal was in the final stages of its draft, being readied for the signatures of the two Heads of State at an early date.
The reality of a deal like this to go through meant one country would be the biggest loser. The country was Iran. A nuclear-capable Saudi Arabia was a direct challenge to the Iranian dreams of the leadership of the Islamic world and a diplomatic victory for its arch-rival Israel. Iran has been funding the Hamas (a Sunni group) in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon for years. Although the Shias hate Sunnis and Vice versa, their hatred for the State of Israel is greater than their mutual hatred. It would be logical to think that Iran would have liked to scuttle the deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hamas, on the other hand, harbours a pathological hatred for the Zionist state of Israel and has vowed to kill all Jews and abolish the state of Israel. Hamas's agenda is first the extermination of Jews and then the rights of the Palestinian people. Such ideological blindness is easy prey for exploitation.
The Hamas Offensive
All the compounds that make an explosive mixture in the Middle East were boiling in this cauldron for a while. The events of the past, like the storming of the Al-Aqsa mosque in east Jerusalem in the holy month of Ramzan by the Israeli police and the killings of the Palestinians in the West Bank last year, were a component of this explosive compound, which was ready to explode anytime. Why Israelis were complicit in this understanding or complicit in the preparations of Hamas for an attack on Israel is baffling. The common belief that fits the narrative is that Israeli intelligence and the military were too arrogant to believe that Hamas could launch an attack on Israeli soil. The well-coordinated attack on the 07th of October 2023 near the southern border of Israel would have taken months, if not years, to plan. Hamas does not have the capability the Israelis believed, which could be true. This understanding gives credence to the theory that Hamas had outside support regarding the finances, sophisticated weaponry, and planning for this foray into Israel. The method used and the coordinated targeting of surveillance systems at the points of incursions required an experienced military mind to plan precision attacks. It took Israel and the entire Western world by surprise. It does not need rocket science to guess where such help could have come from for Hamas.
Prognosis
Israel has not yet begun the ground offensive. It is expected anytime soon. What the objectives are and what the terminal end state would be as desired by the IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) is a matter of conjecture. Yet, going by experience ( Read the two articles written on this blog in May 2021 on the last Israel-Hamas conflict; the link below), the IDF is unlikely to achieve substantive gains. It is tough to distinguish who is a Hamas activist and a civilian, as all Palestinians look alike, and Hamas does not operate as a regular army outfit. They act as a terrorist group in cells independent of others. Second, Gaza is a very densely populated area. Making way through the debris and destruction, laden with booby traps and mines, would slow the operations to a snail's pace. Suppose the objective is to liberate the captured Israeli civilians and army personnel. In that case, it's impossible for the IDF to achieve unless the Hamas release them as part of a deal or a concession to the IDF. Hamas does not operate from overground centres or structures. They have developed a sophisticated system of underground tunnel cris-crossing at varying levels (depth), making access to it or its destruction very difficult. Hamas is allegedly holding these hostages in a few of these tunnels.
Where does it go from here for Israel? It is a challenging proposition to speculate. Israel's dilemma lies in the fact that it can bomb the structures in Gaza which stand on the ground going into the sky. However, it cannot target the tunnels running below the earth. Hamas resides below and has left the Palestinian civilian population on top to suffer the consequences of their 07th Oct act. Hamas is a cruel organisation whose leaders and perpetrators are either out of Gaza or hiding in the tunnels safe from the Israeli air strikes. The Hamas's senior leadership is believed to be in Qatar, ensconced in a five-star hotel where they monitor and control the operations. With the initial sympathy of the attack by Hamas ebbing for the Israelis, more voices on the Israeli atrocities on Palestine's civilian population would be heard in the media and on the internet. The criticism would get shriller with more Palestinian deaths. Israel would be asked to lift its siege, allow basic necessities to flow into Gaza, and let the civilian population evacuation out of Gaza or a safe place designated. But can they turn two million people into a refugee camp? Impossible. Israel thus faces a Hobson's choice of the worst kind. It has vowed to eradicate Hamas but does not have the space to do it. Netanyahu and his war cabinet have put themselves in a bind, as violence cannot justify earlier violence. Unless they have a bigger plan for resetting the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip into a more meaningful place or form, eradicating Hamas is a distant dream. For this to happen, both sides have to lose something. Netanyahu and his party's belief in one nation theory or giving up forever the idea of peace with the Arab world. The Saudis will not sign a deal, given this war for some time. Peace has once again been scuttled by those who claim to be the leaders of their respective people. That is the saddest dilemma of the Middle East.
Links:
Israel-Hamas Conflict: https://faugystrategy.substack.com/p/israel-hamas-conflict-part-i
Israel -Hamas Conflict, Concluding Part: https://faugystrategy.substack.com/p/israel-hamas-conflict-concluding
Abraham Accord: https://faugystrategy.substack.com/p/israel-peace-agreement-with-uae-and