Israel – Hamas Conflict: Part -I
Dear Readers,
My Last post, “What’s happening in Israel?” https://faugystrategy.substack.com/p/what-is-happening-in-israel has received a great response, and I was egged on to do a post on Hamas, the lesser-known of the two warring parties. I have put together a two-part analysis on Hamas. I hope you will love reading it. This is Part I, and in a day or two, the next part would also be posted. Happy Reading
Israel – Hamas Conflict: Part -I
Since I wrote the first post of this series, a lot has happened in the Israel Hamas conflict. The conflict doesn’t seem to be ending in a hurry. Innocent civilians are killed on both sides, mainly the Palestinian side in Gaza. Yet none relents, least of all the Israel. Why is it that Israel cannot once in for all destroy Hamas’s fighting capabilities? This piece explores the operational reality of Hamas. What is its status in Palestine? Where does it get its funds from? Where does it get its weapons? Why do they keep fighting the wars they seem to lose yet bounce back? And lastly; Will this stop? And is there a solution to this problem? We will explore all these questions and more to demystify Hamas. The write up would appear on the blog in two parts: Part I & Part II.
Hamas has its origin in the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt in the late 80s. It was not an anti-Israel organisation to start with. It was formed with the sole purpose of opposing the Fatah party of Yasser Arafat and challenge his authority as the supreme leader of the Palestinian people. After Arafat’s death, Hamas started exerting its supremacy and declared its intentions in seeking a greater Palestine to include territories of Gaza, West Bank, and Israel put together. In pursuance of this goal, it refused to accept Israel’s legitimacy and its right to exist. Hamas has declared: it stands for the complete destruction of Israel and the Jewish people in the Middle East. Israel, too, reciprocated this stance and did not recognise Hamas and refused to deal with them. With such rigidity, hatred and confrontation are natural by-products.
The death of Yasser Arafat also saw the dwindling of fortunes of his Fatah party. They lost elections of the Palestine assembly and had to cede power to Hamas in 2006. It is widely believed in Gaza that Fatah lost because of its corrupt politicians. The loss of Gaza was a big blow to the movement and divided Palestine into two power groups; the two political parties, claiming to be the real Palestinian Government. Despite several efforts, a united Palestinian authority remained a dream. A bitter struggle ensued. While Hamas ruled in Gaza, Fatah had its stronghold in the West bank. The resultant product was the absence of a credible Palestinian Authority. The western countries, including the US and EU, did not recognise Hamas; hence all aid programmes were abandoned/halted. Their message to the Palestinians was clear, sort out your internal problems before expecting any help from outside. The nadir came when open war broke between the Fatah and the Hamas in 2007, nicknamed the ‘Palestinian Civil War’. The stalemate continues today, and the general election to be held in May 21 has been postponed due to the current crisis.
All this while Hamas continued to arm itself and grow its militant might. Since coming to the power of Hamas, there have been at least six major and minor clashes with IDF. Each time the story has been similar; rocket firing by Hamas into Israeli territories and massive retaliation by IDF. In 2014 the skirmish ended in a war with Israel moving with tanks and artillery into the Gaza strip. With each conflict, there has been a growing realisation amongst the Israeli defence forces and the Government that the complete destruction of Hamas’s military potential is an unachievable aim. And hence they have changed their end objectives when fighting with Hamas.
Hamas is both a political and a military organisation. It would be correct to presume that the military wing dominates the Hamas agenda. The military wing of Hamas is named: the Izz ad-Din-al-Qassam Brigades. The military wing is independent of its Political wing as it takes its own decision and is not answerable for its actions. It’s a ploy to keep the political leadership isolated in the world’s eyes to save them from being an object of sanctions. The Sin-Fenn and IRA had shared the same relationship in Northern Ireland in the heights of the civil war. Despite this separation, the Hamas political wing is also branded by the US and EU as a terrorist organisation.
The military wing of Hamas is organised in small actionable cells, and they act as teams. They have a security wing and an intelligence wing. The security wing is for seeking out Palestinians suspected of helping the enemy: Israel, and meting out punishment; read execution. The intelligence wing is gathering intelligence on the IDF through Human-int and cyber-int. The other teams are fighting teams who carry out operational tasks like fighting in the streets, building underground tunnels and logistics. It is estimated that the military wing would have a strength of its ranks between 30 and 50k. These are the recruited strength; apart from them, they have activists who support them from outside. They train in Gaza and outside, i.e. in Iran and Syria.
Hamas fighting arsenal consists of small arms, Artillery Rockets, Anti-tank missiles and Mortar shells. But most deterrence and destruction are caused by rockets. Most of the short-range rocket artillery is indigenous. Yes, there is a thriving, crude, indigenous driven arms industry in Gaza. The primary ammunition made is the rockets. Longer-range rockets are procured from Iran, Syria, and Turkey. These are the same rockets that Hamas has been firing into Israel. They are fired from eight tube indigenous rocket launching platforms. The long-range ones do come with dedicated launchers like the one with Russian Grad BM 21. The longest-range rocket currently available with Hamas is the M-302; 200 km. Their armoury is estimated to have an inventory of rockets from 10k to 30 k. No one is certain, but the figure near 10 k seems more realistic.
Not included in the diagram above, but which is worth mentioning is the A 120 version, a 120 km range rocket. Hamas is manufacturing this with foreign assistance in Gaza. It has been the main warhead used in the current conflict. For Hamas, it doesn’t matter what the target is; as long as it lands in Israel, they are happy. There are reports that Hamas uses a homing device on its rockets which has improved accuracy. There is no proof of these claims. Hamas also propagates the use of missiles. But these missiles are Anti-tank missiles like the Konkurs, Kornet and Malyutka: Russian origin. This is way below what the Israelis possess, and yet Hamas manages to survive.
The continuous barrage of rockets onto its civilian population would have been a source of a major disaster for Israel but for two factors. First, the rockets fired by Hamas are not very accurate as most of them do not hit their targets. The casualty figures on the Israeli side bear testimony to this fact. Second, the ‘Iron Dome’, an indigenous anti-missile defence system that Israel had inducted in IDF in 2011, has been their saviour. It has a 90% success ratio, as claimed. Even if the claims seem exaggerated, it provides the Israeli Government with the critical time to gather and ponder its response. The ‘Iron Dome’ minimises the casualty figure by destroying the rockets before reaching their intended targets. This capability has made life safer for Israelis despite the constant barrage from the Gaza strip.
The Israeli response has been deliberate and disproportionate. IDF has made no secret of their bombing campaign. It is a matter of SOP that Israeli defence informs the residents of the buildings it bombs well in advance, giving them time to evacuate the premises. The IDF Airforce usually resorts to PGMs(Precision Guided Munitions) to minimise the collateral damage, and they claim to destroy buildings with a Hamas signature of some sort. Israel has gone on record to provide proof of Hamas presence in buildings they have destroyed. How does Hamas survive such pinpoint and Effect-Based Operations against them? And why can’t Israel finish off their offending armaments: the rockets and missiles?
The answer to this question lies in the complexity of the topography of the Gaza strip. Having been driven into the sea, literally, Gaza is a densely populated state. Their population centres have no breathing spaces. Being dense in population, they provide Hamas with the perfect cover for hiding their equipment arsenal and personnel. Hamas is known to have hidden armaments and ammunition under hospital buildings, religious places and also schools. The sanctity of these institutions prohibits the use of destructive instruments. Israel has provided videos of Hamas firing rockets from within the precinct of hospitals. While it may have robbed Hamas of legitimacy, it enhanced its effectiveness and survivability. Israel has often claimed that Hamas uses its people as a defensive shield. The claims could be correct as Hamas use civilians as their military assets. Thus, Hamas hides its assets within the civilian infrastructure and let Israel take the blame for bringing down buildings. For Hamas, it is sound tactics.
(To be Continued)