IS CANADA INDIA'S NEWEST ENEMY

Dear Readers,

The Indo-Canada feud was known to most people. While it was known that the relations were on a cold track, the allegations by Justin Trudeau in the Canadian parliament against the Indian government have come as a jolt. What would be the after-effects, and where would India-Canada ties go from here? This piece tries to analyse and answer some questions. It would take a long time before the long-term impact of the crisis is well understood. I hope, for the time being, some questions have been answered. Happy reading.

IS CANADA INDIA'S NEWEST ENEMY

Hollywood movies have been the best barometer to understand America's shifting enemy number one. Depiction of the villain's nationality and business interests were symbolic of US foreign policy concerns. From World War II to the Mission Impossible series, Hollywood showcased villains in ways that would be hard for foreign policy mandarins to portray. A somewhat similar trend is seen in Bollywood movies, too. Would the next Bollywood movie villain be a Canadian? That possibility seems bright in the aftermath of Justin Trudeau's unsubstantiated allegations in the Canadian parliament against India, accusing the Indian government of having a hand in killing a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, was declared a terrorist by India in 2020. A man known for violent terrorist acts in India, the Indian government had submitted an extradition request. Najjar was gunned down earlier this year in June 2023 near a Sikh temple in Surrey in the British Columbia Province of Canada by two unidentified bike-borne assailants. India has called these allegations absurd. By stating unproven allegations in the nation's parliament, Justin Trudeau has raised the banner of a political and diplomatic offensive against India.

Historical Perspective

Canada has been sympathetic to the Pro Khalistan Sikh lobby in their country since the early 1970s. It is hard to pinpoint why it started, but it's easy to explain why it exists today. The easiest way to describe Canada's honeymoon with Pro Khalistan is their lack of understanding of the ramifications of Khalistan politics and their unwillingness to rap the knuckles of a community contributing handsomely to the Canadian economy.

Canada has been a favoured destination for Indians looking for greener pastures abroad and for Indian students pursuing higher studies. Canada, too, was eager and happy to have a migrant population who were hard-working and studious. It fitted their requirements admirably. People from Punjab benefitted the most from this open-door Canadian policy. They migrated in numbers and took up many jobs which were hard for locals to run. Farming, truck business, highway petrol pumps and restaurants are a few examples. The Sikh population, with their never-say-die approach, thrived and became prosperous.

The turbulent period of the eighties saw a large influx of the Sikh population migrating to Canada under the pretext of persecution by the Indian government. They were pro-Khalistan and Bhindranwle supporters escaping the law after Operation Blue Star. Canadian government proved to be a tacit supporter of these people, who organised into a pro-Khalistan group under the leadership of Sikh leaders like Talwinder Singh Parmar, who was in cahoots with Jagjit Singh Chohan, the self-styled leader of Khalistan operating from London. Under Parmar's leadership, Air India Flight 182 of Kanishka was bombed from Toronto to London. 329 people died, making it the worst aviation tragedy in mid-air until 9/11. Canada botched up the investigation, and despite the plethora of evidence and a commission finding, only one man was convicted of manslaughter, and all he got was fifteen years imprisonment.

The above narrative proves the history of Canada in turning a blind eye to the proliferating pro-Khalistan elements on its soil. The neglect became a compulsion. As Sikhs became more prosperous, their political ambitions and pro-Khalistan roots surfaced more prominent than ever before. They took seats in the Canadian parliament and, since the 2021 general elections, became coalition partners with Justin Trudeau's liberal party. The Liberal Party was ten short of the majority in a 338-seat parliament. They took the support of the NDP (New Democratic Party) led by the Pro Khalistan Sikh leader Jagmeet Singh. The NDP had secured 25 seats. The main opposition to the Liberal Party comes from the conservative party, which could secure only 119 seats, and Bloc Quebecois, who got 32 seats. Given this equation, Jagmeet Singh's NDP became the kingmaker and now calls the shots in charting Justin Trudeau's India policy.

Is Justin Trudeau Justified in Accusing India?

The answer to this question lies in the politics of Justin Trudeau and his party. For long, the liberals have been hobnobbing with the Khalistani elements in Canada. They are prosperous and added to the vote bank, and party funds resonated with the political parties. However, their understanding of its ramifications in India was poorly understood or, at best, ignored. The Indian governments, cutting across party lines, had been requesting the Canadian governments to reign in the separatist elements who had taken shelter in Canada. In 2015, a lookout notice was sent to the Canadian government on Hardeep Sing Nijjar, the terrorist at the centre of the controversy over his extradition to India. The Canadian government was conspicuous by its inaction to the Indian government's request. The final nail in the coffin was when, in 2017, Justin Trudeau, as the prime minister of Canada, attended a Sikh parade in Toronto which voiced a cessation from India by displaying Khalistan flags and photos of Bhindranwale, the separatist militant leader killed in Operation Blue Star, in 1984. India sent a strong demarche to the Canadian high commissioner in New Delhi, condemning the presence of their prime minister at such an event, which openly advocated for separatism in India. Justin Trudeau's India stance was thus clear; he refused to act against Canada's free speech and demonstrations tradition. He, therefore, was on the foreign ministry sights for a diplomatic snub. His 2018 state visit to India was exactly that: A Great Snub. His week-long visit saw the Canadian prime minister shuttling across the length and breadth of the nation in a photo op without meeting any senior government functionary. Suppose the recent utterings in his parliament have their origins in that state tour, then it won't come as a surprise to Canada watchers.

The freeze that started in 2018 between the two nations peaked in the recent G 20 visit. It was known before the meeting that relations with Canada were going only one way: South, thanks to their undeterred support of the Khalistan faction at home. Posters had appeared on the streets threatening Indian diplomats with dire consequences, meaning death threats. A tableau called a 'Float' in Canada was taken out in a referendum parade by Khalistan Supporters eulogising the brutal killing of Mrs Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguard in June this year. India condemned the entire proceedings and took up this matter with the Canadian government and their high commission in India but to no avail. It was then clear that the Justin Trudeau government was out of its depth to take any concrete action against the pro-Khalistan elements in Canada. Hence, the future was known to be bleak. What followed in the G20 and the aftermath was a foregone conclusion. Is Justin Trudeau justified in doing what he did? It would depend upon which side one is on. From an Indian perspective, he is out of political depth to start such a political misadventure, which could bury him politically at home and abroad.

Is the Timing of the Announcement Significant?

Many would wonder why Justin Trudeau would risk announcing the suspected allegations of an Indian hand in Nijjar's killing immediately after a successful G20 meeting in New Delhi. Nijjar was killed in June 23, so why now? It could have been before or a little later, too. It is hard to conjecture the timing, but it must be significant. Any reason would be speculation or an intelligent guess.

One of the principal reasons could be Justin Trudeau is fast losing popularity in Canada. As per a survey conducted by an agency, Justin Trudeau was voted as the worst Prime Minister of the last 55 years in Canada by 30 % of Canadians. As per another research firm, The Angus Reid Institute, Justin Trudeau's disapproval rating in September 2023 had risen to a dismal 63%. Given this fact, Justin Trudeau could be preparing himself for another early election. The next general elections should be before 30 October 2025. Still, as per grapevine in Canada, it could be held in the fall of 2023. A ploy like what he has employed could very well be for the domestic audience to make himself a worthy prime minister for the fourth time. It's a known fact in Canada that Justin Trudeau has gotten shoddy treatment whenever he has visited India. Even during the G20 meeting, he was treated as a pariah while all diplomatic niceties were extended. He skipped the main dinner function hosted by President Murmu, and to add salt to his wounds, his plane developed a snag. It could not take off for an unprecedented 36 hours. Justin Trudeau was waiting to strike to regain some lost pride.

A second possible reason could be a Western conspiracy to keep Prime Minister Modi in check. The unprecedented success of the 20 meeting and its rising popularity amongst the Global South countries has not gone unnoticed in the West. India's ability to pull off a declaration without the Russian condemnation of the Ukraine war has not appealed to the Western alliance, be it NATO or the EU. The countries who have expressed concern about the Canadian allegations are the UK, Australia and the US. All have expressed concern at the serious allegations made by Canada. None have questioned Justin Trudeau if there is any evidence to prove his allegations; why have they not been shared before making the allegations? Sources suggest that the Canadian prime minister had spoken to the heads of these countries, garnering support for Canada. That they have not openly criticised Prime Minister Mr Modi is possible due to a lack of conclusive evidence with the Canadian authorities. Yet a charge levied by Mr Justin Trudeau goes in their interests to keep Mr Modi in check. The West is miffed at India's stance on the Ukraine war and its continued oil diplomacy with Russia. What better way to get even?

Who Loses More

In this part, the article looks at which of the two countries lost more due to this fresh diplomatic and political standoff. Justin Trudeau is slipping in the popularity ratings back home. His nearest rival, the CPC (Conservative Party of Canada), has taken the lead. As per the latest ratings, more Canadians favour a majority conservative party rule instead of a liberal minority in coalition with the NDP. The conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre is a more popular Prime Ministerial candidate than Justin Trudeau (32 to 17%). All the above is before the current India backlash by the liberals in the Canadian parliament. Would Trudeau lift his sagging image by 'Witch Hunting' is anyone's guess? Yet it seems unlikely that his latest theatrics will impress the voters, as it lacks support at home and abroad. Most Op-Eds (Opinion Editorials) in Canada are critical of Trudeau for levying such severe charges without concrete proof, which he has not shared in the open.

The aspect which matters most for the Canadians is their sagging economy. The trade figures between India and Canada seem to have an even balance between exports and imports. In 2022, the bilateral between the two countries stood at 8 billion US dollars, with both Imports and Exports at roughly 4 billion US dollars. What was on offing would trouble Canada more than it would bother India. A bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was in the offing, and discussions have continued since 2022. The CEPA was expected to bring a GDP gain of up to 5.9 billion dollars US to Canada by 2035. Earlier this month, the CEPA was put on hold due to the freeze in Indo-Canadian relations. While India is a sought-after partner for free trade deals by most European and South Asian countries, Canada is still juggling the pandemic's after-effects.  600 Canadian companies have invested in India as against India's 30. Canadian pension funds have a cumulative investment of 55 billion US dollars in the Indian markets with a plan to up it to 300 billion. Canada stands to lose substantially by the deferment of the CEPA.

The travel advisory by the Indian government to students and tourists not to travel to Canada in light of the anti-India sentiments existing in some parts of the country, like Brampton, Ontario, would further dampen Canada's revenues. Since the matter is still to peak, it would take a while before the correct estimates of numbers in terms of loss or gain are made public. It might appear on the face of it that Canada stands to lose more even if it makes short-term gains in politics. Fortunately, there are no military fallouts of this feud.

Prognosis

It is hard to see the current standoff letting up in the near future. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has staked his political career on his anti-India tirades. Such a big gamble must have some basis in the liberal party's future schemes. That he has political compulsions of siding with the pro-Khalistan party, the NDP, to stay in power is a known fact. But would a leader stake the future of his party for the sake of a four-year term is the conjecture that political pundits have to ponder. On the side of the Government of India, it can be stated that parties opposed to the ruling BJP alliance, despite their vast differences, have supported the government in fighting the Canadian government's allegations. Congress has supported it, and so has the ruling party in Punjab: the Aam Adami party. Congress had no choice as the Khalistan support in Canada was first raised by Mrs Indira Gandhi to the then Prime Minister of Canada, Mr Pierre Trudeau, the father of Justin Trudeau. Rajiv Gandhi's government bore the aftermath of the Kanishka bombing. Experts believe India has been soft on Canada in denouncing its pro-liberal policies favouring the Khalistanis. The latest freeze in relations would give ample opportunity for India to throw all it has got against the Khalistan interests in Canada, India, and Pakistan. It's unlikely that the Modi government would exonerate the liberal party and their Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, in a hurry. Canada would have to think hard about where it stands vis-a-vis India if any amends are to be made. And if that means voting out Justin Trudeau and his party out of power, then it would be a good beginning.

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