MANIPUR UNREST: A COMPLEX THREAT - I

Dear Readers,

Manipur continues to be in the news for the wrong reasons. This article is already late in publication for many reasons. India’s North East has been violent as it has been beautiful. The seeds of the desire for independence or autonomy lie in British rule. The seven states of the North East, popularly known as the Seven Sisters, are as different from each other as they are the same. Manipur lies in the eastern part of North East bordering Myanmar. The cultural and religious differences between the communities and tribes are a trigger for violence most of the time. In Manipur’s case, the differences between the Meteis, the Kuki-Zoma, and Nagas, the three most important groups in Manipur, appear to be the reason for the violence. Yet when probed in depth, the reasons are far more complex. This two-part article explains the reasons and dynamics the authorities face in dealing with Manipur Crisis.

MANIPUR UNREST: A COMPLEX THREAT - I

The cycle of violence seems unending in Manipur, no matter how many Para Military and Army companies are pushed into the troubled state. Article 355 is already in place, giving the central government complete control of state law and order. This move is one step short of enforcing Article 356 on the state, which means a President’s rule. That is unlikely to happen as Manipur is BJP ruled state. The central government and the state government are at a loss of thought on actions to be taken to reverse the violent trend. Is making another state for the Kuki-Zomis and Nagas in the Hills of Manipur an answer, or will such a move further impinge upon national security? This article examines the issues that besiege Manipur and, consequently, the Indian Union.

Origins of the Problem

Manipur is a border state of India in the northeast and shares a long border with Myanmar in its east. Refer to the map given above. By now, it is common knowledge that the recent problem in Manipur is about coexistence between the majority group and minority tribes. The majority population group, the Meitei, comprises Hindus occupying the Imphal valley. Imphal is the capital city of Manipur. Surrounding the valley are the hills of Manipur, occupied by hill tribes consisting of the Nagas and the Kuki-Zomis. These hill tribes have different ethnicity from Meitei and are practising Christianity. The Kuki-Zomi and Naga tribes have the status of Scheduled Tribes, thus giving them certain privileges, such as land, culture and reservations in government jobs and educational institutions. The Meiteis are not part of the Schedule Tribe list. The demographic distribution of Manipur as per the 2011 census is Hindus: 41.39 %, Christians: 41.29%, Muslims: 8.4%, Sanamahi 7.8% ( A sun god worshipping sect) and others:1%. The Meiteis have been the ruling class and have enjoyed power in Imphal. They also occupy a chunk of the government jobs in the state.

Manipur has a history of insurgency and violence. The first known insurgent group is from the Meitei group, the UNLF (United National Liberation Front), founded in 1964, which wanted independence from India. Then came the PREPAK (People Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak) & the PLA (People’s Liberation Army). All wanted independence from India. There was internal strife amongst the Meitei groups as also inter-tribal rivalry. Despite Manipur getting statehood in 1972, violence in Manipur did not abate. The increase in violence led to the declaration of Manipur as a disturbed area from 1980 to 2004. Consequent to it, AFSPA was put in place. Over a period of time, due to the improved situation in the state, the provisions of the Disturbed area act have been removed from districts which have shown the absence of violence. As on 01 Apr 2022, the disturbed area tag was removed from 15 Police Stations’ jurisdiction, and AFSPA from 19 Police stations in Manipur, Thus, making most of Manipur free of special provisions imposed by the central government. As peace returned after 2012, the state governments became more popular. The Centre, too, started giving more attention to the North East in continuation of its ‘Look East’ policy. Violence gave way to a more peaceful way of showing anger and discontent. More and more insurgent groups came over the ground. Stray violent incidents sometimes marred the peace, but the graph showed a gradual downward trend.

Deep Seated rivalry amongst the ethnic groups of Manipur is coming to the fore. Furthermore, people inimical to the state are taking advantage. The BJP government is in the majority, yet rules with the support of seven Hill District elected MLAs who belong to the NPP (National People’s Party). Since the BJP is projected as the Hindu party, the hill districts oppose them. They proclaim that they have lost trust in the ruling party to protect minority interests. They are demanding a separate state/ administered region for the hill tribes. BJP’s emergence in the state is a late phenomenon. Before 2017 Manipur was governed by INC (Indian National Congress). Congress too was facing similar problems. BJP came to power in Manipur on a developmental agenda and on promises to end the 2016 economic blockade by NUC (Naga United Council). They had hoped to placate the Nagas and the Kukis both.

Birender Singh, the present chief minister, a Meitei himself, who beat the anti-incumbency vote in 2022, has been unable to deliver on his promises. It is a failure of his administrative capabilities. E.g., The Manipur government issued an order for the eviction of people from the forests who do not have legal holdings of the land. The eviction order met with massive opposition from the hill districts asking the government to back out from imposing it. To add fuel the fire, the high court in Imphal asked the Manipur government to take up with the central government granting a case to grant the status of ‘Schedule Tribe’ for the Meiteis. The clashes in Manipur resulted from these issues for which the state government was responsible. During an anti-encroachment rally by the All Tribal Students Union Manipur, violence broke out in the southern town of Churachandpur, spiralling out of control.

Since the disturbances in Manipur, the Chief Minister has been shuttling up and down to Delhi to seek the central government’s help, he has called for an all-party meeting which has met with partial success. What needs to be debated is: whether it was a failure of administrative capability or a failure of his intent. Because if it is the latter, Manipur will once again slip back into a troubled state status. Violence will become the ultimate outcome unless all sides decide to find a solution. There is no right or wrong once distrust engulfs the two opposing parties. Neither side is willing to give up their point of view. The Meitei feel that since there is no restriction on buying land in the valley, the influx of Nagas and Kuki-Zomis flowing from the hills would engulf them. Hence, they demand the Schedule Tribe status, as is given to the hill tribes, for themselves. The Nagas & Kukis opine that Meiteis are in the majority and enjoy power in Imphal; why do they need reservations? Inimical elements colour it with religious identity and fill social media and other means with negative propaganda.

Security Implications

Security in the Northeast cannot be looked at in isolation from any particular state. The history of the North East from the Indian independence is full of strife and insurgent movements. There is an insurgency in all seven states of the northeast. The reasons can be traced to the British, who gave these states the status of ‘Excluded Areas’, giving them a belief that they were not inclusive of the Indian identity. When the British left India, giving independence in 1947, these areas expected to get autonomous status, if not complete independence. Nothing like that happened, and they were all made inclusive of the Indian Union. This inclusion caused heartburn in many politicians and activists in these states. They demanded independence, and when it was not forthcoming, they resorted to violence to secure their political aims. Consequent to the British legacy, insurgent groups in all seven states asked for either independence or autonomy. The oldest amongst them are the Naga insurgent groups. Mr Phizo formed the NNC (Naga National Council) in 1946, even before Indian independence.

At one time, 70 big and small rebel groups were active across the seven sister states. Out of the seven states, three states: Meghalaya, Assam, and Tripura, border Bangladesh, and the other four border Myanmar. Today a mere 15 are involved in insurgent activities. Understanding the role of the two neighbouring countries named above is essential. When 15 out of the 70-odd groups were banned by the government of India, declaring them unlawful or terrorist organisations, their cadres took shelter in bases in either Myanmar or Bangladesh or both. Noteworthy was the ability of the insurgent groups operating in these states to align with each other against a common enemy: the Indian state and the Indian security forces. This alignment resulted in sharing each other’s bases, providing information and the ability to operate in each other’s areas, thus making quick getaways after strikes. While the ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) could operate from Arunachal Pradesh to bases in Bangladesh, NSCN- Issac Muivah & Khaplang (National Socialist Council for Nagaland -IM &K) operated seamlessly from North Sagaing district in Myanmar through the border across Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura into Bangladesh. They strongly connected with the PLA (People Liberation Army) and the UNLF (United National Liberation Front), both Manipur-based groups. For the sake of brevity of the article, the bases and the insurgent groups operating from Bangladesh will not be discussed any further. Because the ULFA is no more a force, and its leaders are in Jail. So is the case with insurgent groups in Meghalaya and Tripura. By 2017 it was declared by the Border Security Forces of both nations; there was no more presence of Indian insurgent groups inside Bangladesh. This victory is due to India’s excellent relations with the Bangladesh government under Sheikh Hasina Wazed in the last ten years.

(To be continued)